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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.09.17 12:05l 110 Lines 3959 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly SILSO report: International Sunspot Number and forecasts
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Date: Fri, 1 Sep 2017 10:02:51 GMT
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Subject: Monthly SILSO report: International Sunspot Number and forecasts
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#-------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY TABLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL TOTAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# AND 12-MONTH PREDICTIONS from the World Data Center SILSO #
#-------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
August 2017 : 33.1 (thirty-three point one)
Maximum : 74 on 31 // Minimum : 12 on 13
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for August 2017 :
1.. 13 6.. 13 11.. 13 16.. 32 21.. 66 26.. 49 31.. 74
2.. 13 7.. 13 12.. 13 17.. 45 22.. 64 27.. 38
3.. 14 8.. 13 13.. 12 18.. 46 23.. 69 28.. 23
4.. 14 9.. 13 14.. 13 19.. 50 24.. 55 29.. 41
5.. 13 10.. 15 15.. 22 20.. 60 25.. 54 30.. 53
81 cooperating stations on September 1, 09 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for February 2017 : 26.6 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2017 Mar 23 23 2017 Sep 20 23 2018 Mar 13 27
Apr 23 22 Oct 19 24 Apr 12 23
May 23 20 Nov 18 24 May 10 22
Jun 22 20 Dec 17 24 Jun 8 21
Jul 21 22 2018 Jan 16 25 Jul 6 20
Aug 20 23 Feb 15 27 Aug 5 19
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
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