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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.09.17 14:44l 141 Lines 5011 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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To: solar@eu
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Fri, 1 Sep 2017 12:40:05 GMT
:Issued: 2017 Sep 01 1242 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU244
UGEOA 30512 70901 1242/ 9930/
11012 21012 30012
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 01 Sep 2017 until 03 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 020
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 009
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity remained low. A fourth
sunspot region has emerged and did not show any signature of flaring
activity. The other regions are relatively stable, Catania group 43 (NOAA
region 2672) and Catania group 47 (NOAA region 2674) produced only B-class
flares and narrow not earth-directed CMEs. We expect the solar activity
to
remain low with a probability of very few sporadic C-class flare.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the
available coronagraph imagery and the solar protons remains at background
level.
Since yesterday, August 31 around 5:00 UT, the Earth is inside the fast
solar wind with the speed ranging between 500 and 700 km/s. Over the past
24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 11
nT
with the Bz component fluctuating between -5 and 5 nT.
The geomagnetic conditions were active with a moderate storm (K-Dourbes=6,
Kp-NOAA = 5) on August 31 around 10:00 UT, following shortly after by
unsettled conditions (K-Dourbes=3) to even lower level (K-Dourbes=2)
between September 1, 5:00 and 9:00 UT. Currently, K-Dourbes has raised
to
level 4. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to fluctuated between
unsettled to active conditions for the next 48 h and until the high speed
stream has finished.
A CME was directed to the west and a glancing blow at the Earth on
September 2 without important geomagnetic consequences is possible,
although not likely. The faint and slow CME was observed on August 28
(first seen at 17:12 UT on LASCO-C2), originating from Catania group 43
(NOAA region 2672), which was located at 30 degrees west from central
median.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 068, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70901 1242/ 31///
10071 20920 3027/ 4//// 80104 90560
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70901 1242/ 01/08 01104
10043 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50030 60003 47808 01000
10046 2//// 3//// 472// 50040 60001 23108 00000
10047 2//// 3//// 4542/ 50550 60012 14614 15000
10048 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60005 32605 00000
99999
USSPS 31405 01085 06132 43003 47808 25403 46004 23108 2/901 47055 14614
44512 48003 32605 22305
USSPS 32404 30057 03832 65004 45107 21303 67004 26008 2/801 68040 17513
41504
USSPS 21305 30145 04242 69064 17015 51505 68008 25508 2/801 66008 45708
31406
UMAGF 30503 70901 1004/ 31066 1/046 25444 34333
UMAGF 31523 70901 0000/ 31007 1/027 22355 34443
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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