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OK0NAG > SOLAR 02.09.17 14:35l 145 Lines 5031 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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Date: Sat, 2 Sep 2017 12:32:20 GMT
To: solar@eu
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU245
UGEOA 30512 70902 1234/ 9930/
11022 21022 30022
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 02 Sep 2017 until 04 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 093 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 006
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity remained low. There were
four sunspot regions, and only Catania group 47 (NOAA region 2674) sowed
some flaring activity and produced four C-class flares. The largest one
was
a C2.0-class flare with a peak-time at 15:37 UT September 1. Catania group
43 (NOAA region 2672) is on West solar limb and will disappear in a couple
of hours. The photospheric magnetic complexity of Catania group 47 (NOAA
region 2674) has increased, therefore we expect a higher probability of
C-class flare with possibly the occurrence of an M-class flare. A new
active region is turning over the East solar limb, which might start to
also contribute the solar activity.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the
available coronagraph imagery and the solar protons remains at background
level.
The Earth remained in the fast solar wind with the speed that has slowly
decreased from 700 to about 600 Km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude has also slowly decreased from 10 nT to about 4 nT, and the Bz
component fluctuating between -5 and 2 nT.
The geomagnetic conditions were active with K-Dourbes ranging between 2
and
4, and Kp-NOAA between 2 and 5. The observed moderated storm (Kp-NOAA =
5)
on September 2, between 03:00 and 09:00 UT was due to Bz component that
stayed negative for a longer period. The geomagnetic conditions are
expected to vary between unsettled to active conditions until the high
speed stream has fade, and then to reduce to quiet to unsettled on
September 3.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 063, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70902 1234/ 01///
10061 20930 3020/ 4//// 80104 90650
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70902 1234/ 01/08 02104
10043 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50030 60003 47808 01000
10046 2//// 3//// 472// 50040 60001 23108 00000
10047 2//// 3//// 4542/ 50550 60012 14614 18100
10048 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60005 32605 01000
99999
USSPS 81202 31033 05732 60014 45408 21404 64003 31108 0/104 62009 24808
2/801 63063 16514 41508
USSPS 32404 31059 06432 65004 46307 21505 67007 24808 2/801 68090 16513
51513 69002 31307 11205
USSPS 31405 31098 07142 43004 46608 25406 46005 24308 2/901 47045 15914
44519 48002 31405 21305
USSPS 21305 31148 07042 69085 15915 54616 68008 24207 2/801 70002 31808
01208 66004 47006 01205
UMAGF 30503 70902 1004/ 01064 1/030 22332 32444
UMAGF 31523 70902 0000/ 01006 1/020 23324 34325
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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