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CX2SA > SWPC 05.09.17 00:24l 63 Lines 2373 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18750-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<N9PMO<CX2SA
Sent: 170904/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18750 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18750-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
04/2033Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06
Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 04/2007Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 04/2019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/1649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15826 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 71/71/71
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 183
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 140/140/130
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 009/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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