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OK0NAG > SOLAR 06.09.17 15:38l 133 Lines 4857 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
To: solar@eu
Date: Mon, 4 Sep 2017 12:27:24 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
:Issued: 2017 Sep 04 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU247
UGEOA 30512 70904 1230/ 9930/
11042 20042 30042
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 04 Sep 2017 until 06 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity reached moderate levels with an M1.2 flare
originating from Catania group 46 (NOAA region 2673) peaking at 05:49UT.
This region grew very fast over the last 24 hours and has developed
significant complexity with mixed polarity in the intermediate spots.
Meanwhile, Catania group 47 (NOAA region 2674) seems to have become less
active but remains large and with significant flaring potential.
Flaring is expected to continue to occur from both regions with especially
Catania group 46 contributing to a significant probability for M flaring.
Overall we estimate that C flaring will occur over the next 24 hours and
that there is a very significant chance for M flares (45%).
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.
Solar Proton flux levels are at background values and are expected to
remain so.
Solar wind speed continued a slow overall decline from around 500 km/s
to
around 470 km/s. Total magnetic field was in the nominal 3-6nT range with
Bz variable and the phi angle mostly in the positive sector.
Solar wind is expected to further recover to nominal conditions over the
next days.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (local K Dourbes 1-3, NOAA
Kp
2-4) and are expected to remain quiet to unsettled over the next days.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 120, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70904 1230/ 03///
1//// 21200 3010/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
04 0536 0549 0605 S10W04 M1.2 1F 46/2673
END
UGEOR 30512 70904 1230/ 04/07 04105
10046 2//// 3//// 4453/ 50630 60023 30707 17300
10047 2//// 3//// 4642/ 50830 60039 10814 16100
10048 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60004 36806 00000
10049 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50040 60007 35409 00000
10050 2//// 3//// 472// 50020 60002 16119 00000
99999
USSPS 31405 04075 12532 46063 30707 58423 47083 10814 44639 48003 36806
22304 49004 35409 24407 50002 16119 2/902
USSPS 32404 02065 05232 67005 22110 21303 68081 13513 57616 69003 34107
21403
USSPS 21305 02146 07432 69092 13015 57523 68006 21511 21303 71003 33210
01205 70003 34508 01203
USSPS 81202 03010 08232 64005 35008 01208 65002 33811 01207 62010 21011
24308 63088 12614 57619
UMAGF 30503 70904 1004/ 03061 1/015 21222 31233
UMAGF 31523 70904 0000/ 03008 1/010 23212 33313
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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