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OK0NAG > SOLAR 07.09.17 13:30l 196 Lines 7261 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
Date: Thu, 7 Sep 2017 12:27:22 GMT
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU250
UGEOA 30512 70907 1230/ 9930/
13072 23072 37072
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 07 Sep 2017 until 09 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 062
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 075
COMMENT: The reporting period was dominated by the strongest Solar flaring
activity in many years. Catania group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) produced
an X9.3 flare peaking at 12:02UT (the X9.3 magnitude was recorded by
NOAA/GOES15 while it was recorded as X10 by NOAA/GOES13). This was the
first X9 flare since 2006-12-05, and the most recent flare stronger than
that of yesterday was the X17 flare of 2005-9-7 (exactly 12 years ago).
Yesterdays event was associated with strong radio bursts over a wide range
of the frequency spectrum, while EUV images show an on disk dimming and
an
EUV wave. All these phenomena are indicative of a CME initiation, that
was
later confirmed by SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images. The region afterwards
produced some more M flares, the strongest of M7.3 magnitude peaking at
10:15UT this morning.
The region continues to contain strong mixed polarity field regions and
exhibits a complex magnetic field configuration which warrants the
expectation of further M flaring from this region, with also a very
significant chance for another X flare. This outlook is expected to persist
over the next 3 days before the region starts turning around the Solar
West
limb.
Coronagraph images show the presence of an asymmetric but full halo CME
associated to the X9.3 flare.
The CME is first visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images at 12:24UT in the South
West. The measured projected speed based on SoHO/LASCO images is around
1100-1200 km/s. Also in STEREO-A/COR2 images the CME is visible as a full
halo.
Initial calculations estimate the arrival of the CME at Earth location
around or after UT noon of September 8.
Following yesterdays activity the proton flux levels for >10MeV protons
have again reached values over 100 pfu with maxima near 350 pfu. Values
currently persist at above 100 pfu. Also higher energy protons were
slightly elevated after the X9.3 flare with fluxes of 100MeV protons
reaching around 0.6 pfu but meanwhile recovering to background values.
As Catania group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) remains to be active and
is
located favourably in terms of magnetic connection to Earth, possible
renewed increases in proton fluxes must be anticipated over the next days.
Solar wind saw initially a steady decline in solar wind speed to 420km/s
before at 23:08UT solar wind conditions became elevated due to the somewhat
later than expected arrival of the September 4 CME. Solar wind speed jumped
to just over 600km/s and total magnetic field jumped initially to 9nT,
later increasing further to 16nT. Solar wind speed remained just below
600km/s since then, and up till now Bz only saw some brief periods of
negative Bz with peaks down to -11nT.
Solar wind conditions will remain elevated though slowly declining during
the further passage of the September 4 CME before a renewed increase is
expected tomorrow around or after UT noon due to the September 6 CME
related to the X9.3 flare.
As a result of the recent solar wind conditions, geomagnetic conditions
have reached, but not exceeded, active levels (local K Dourbes and NOAA
Kp
4).
If longer periods of consistent negative Bz occur this could cause some
geomagnetic storming over the next 24 hours but given the solar wind speed
at around 500 km/s presently, this is expected to reach not above minor
storm levels. Further geomagnetic storming at minor to moderate level must
be anticipated over the next 48-72 hours due to the arrival of the
September 6 CME.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 105, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70907 1230/ 06///
10142 21332 3012/ 4//// 80206 91730
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
06 1551 1556 1603 S09W38 M2.5 3N 46/2673
06 1921 1930 1935 ////// M1.4 46/2673
06 2333 2339 2344 ////// M1.2 ///////
END
UGEOR 30512 70907 1230/ 07/10 07106
10046 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50740 60029 34808 29857
10047 2//// 3//// 4642/ 50520 60017 43314 15000
10050 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60007 11818 00000
10052 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60003 12412 00000
10053 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 30707 00000
99999
USSPS 31405 07108 12332 46074 34808 55429 47052 43314 44617 50002 11818
01207 51001 41916 01204 52003 12412 22303 53001 30707 01203
USSPS 32404 05116 11032 67081 32409 57534 68065 40814 47621 69003 37110
11302 71001 14718 2/801 72001 15211 11302
USSPS 21305 05145 10532 73001 15211 01204 68110 32508 57429 71002 37109
01202 69078 40814 54619 72001 14518 0/101
USSPS 81202 05064 13632 64003 37505 01201 65003 36510 11303 62074 31810
57438 63061 40415 44630 66003 14818 0/102 67002 15512 01202
UMAGF 30503 70907 1004/ 06064 1/017 21222 31333
UMAGF 31523 70907 0000/ 06001 1/012 22123 34214
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