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OK0NAG > SOLAR 08.09.17 13:50l 162 Lines 6221 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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To: solar@eu
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Fri, 8 Sep 2017 12:45:09 GMT
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU251
UGEOA 30512 70908 1244/ 9930/
12082 22082 37082
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 08 Sep 2017 until 10 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 054
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 046
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 024
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at high levels dominated by Catania
sunspot group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) which produced another X1.3
flare peaking at 14:36 UT September 7. Later also 4 more M flares were
produced by the region, the largest peaking at 07:48UT September 8, with
magnitude M8.5.
The region continues to contain strong mixed polarity field regions and
exhibits a complex magnetic field configuration which warrants the
expectation of further M flaring from this region, with also a significant
chance for another X flare. This outlook is expected to persist over the
next 2 days before the region starts turning around the Solar West limb.
Coronagraph data indicate that ejecta associated with these flares are
limited in angular extent and are not likely to influence Earth.
Solar proton flux levels are for the >10MeV protons still above the event
threshold of 10pfu, but values are decreasing.
As Catania group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) remains to be active and
is
located favourably in terms of magnetic connection to Earth, possible
renewed increases in proton fluxes must be anticipated over the next days.
At 22:29UT September 7, a shock was observed in the Solar wind, marking
the
arrival of the September 6 CME. Solar wind speed jumped to over 620 km/s
and increased further afterwards to speeds between 700-800 km/s. Total
magnetic field jumped to 23nT later reaching 34nT. Bz was strongly and
persistently negative for the 3 hours following the shock with a peak down
to -33nT. Total magnetic field was afterwards in the 14-20nT range with
mostly no persistent periods of strongly negative Bz. However, since around
11:15UT Bz has been again strongly negative around -17nT.
Elevated Solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24h
with a generally decreasing trend as the CME passes.
Geomagnetic conditions reached severe levels (NOAA Kp 8) for the two
measurement periods around midnight with local conditions seeing only
moderate geomagnetic storms (local K Dourbes 6). Further geomagnetic
storming is expected over the next day due to the CME passage, but should
not see severe magnitudes any more. In the next 48 hours a decay to
unsettled to active conditions is expected.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 098, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70908 1244/ 07///
10123 21293 3030/ 4//// 80106 91330
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
07 0459 0502 0508 S07W45 M2.4 1F 46/2673
07 0949 0954 0958 S08W47 M1.4 1N 260 46/2673 V/2III/2IV/2
07 1011 1015 1018 ////// M7.3 810 46/2673 V/2
07 1420 1436 1455 S11W49 X1.3 2B 1600 46/2673 II/1
07 2350 2359 0014 ////// M3.9 46/2673
08 0219 0224 0229 S09W54 M1.3 1F 46/2673
08 0339 0343 0345 S06W55 M1.2 SF 46/2673
08 0740 0749 0758 S10W57 M8.1 2B 69 46/2673
END
UGEOR 30512 70908 1244/ 07/10 08106
10046 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50740 60029 34808 29747
10047 2//// 3//// 4642/ 50520 60017 43314 15000
10050 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60007 11818 01000
10052 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60003 12412 00000
10051 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 41916 01000
10053 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 30707 00000
99999
USSPS 31405 06068 14232 46091 33308 55445 47073 41814 54627 49001 37909
0/101 50001 13419 0/101 51001 40517 0/101 52006 14011 25407
USSPS 21305 06151 09832 72001 13118 0/101 73009 13811 31305 68105 33909
57523 69069 42115 57617 74001 40815 0/102
USSPS 32404 06066 09632 67086 33509 57526 68068 41814 57624 71000 13718
0/101 72004 14211 21405
UMAGF 30503 70908 1004/ 07060 1/069 23332 33764
UMAGF 31523 70908 0000/ 07007 1/030 23333 33237
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