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OK0NAG > SOLAR 09.09.17 14:40l 147 Lines 5401 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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To: solar@eu
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
Date: Sat, 9 Sep 2017 12:38:03 GMT
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-clacks-overhead: GNU Terry Pratchett
:Issued: 2017 Sep 09 1237 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU252
UGEOA 30512 70909 1237/ 9930/
12092 20092 38092
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 09 Sep 2017 until 11 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 013
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) remained active
with 4 M flares recorded over the period. The largest was an M3.7 flare
peaking at 11:04UT.
As this region approaches the limb in the next day, further M flaring must
be expected over at least the next 24 hours, with also a significant chance
for another X flare.
No Earth directed CMEs are visible in coronagraph data.
Around midnight the >10MeV proton flux has dropped below the event
threshold of 10 pfu.
As Catania group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) remains to be active and
is
located favourably in terms of magnetic connection to Earth, possible
renewed increases in proton fluxes must be anticipated over the next days.
Solar wind saw the final stages of the passage of the September 6 CME.
At
the start of the period total magnetic field steadily declined from around
17nT to a nominal 5-6nT. Bz, starting the period at a very pronounced
-16nT, remained pronounced negative throughout this decline in magnetic
field strength. Solar wind speed dropped steadily from around 760km/s to
around 680km/s.
Solar wind may remain slightly elevated under the possible influence of
the
negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.
Geomagnetic conditions started the period at moderate to severe geomagnetic
storm levels (local K Dourbes 6, NOAA Kp 8) associated to the prolonged
period of pronounced negative Bz values. From September 9 onwards only
quiet conditions were reported.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next days.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 071, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70909 1237/ 08///
1//// 21171 3089/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
08 1509 1547 1604 S08W68 M2.9 1N 46/2673 III/2
08 2333 2345 2356 ////// M2.1 46/2673 IV/1VI/1
09 0414 0428 0443 S13W69 M1.1 SF 46/2673
END
UGEOR 30512 70909 1237/ 07/10 09106
10046 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50740 60029 34808 29745
10047 2//// 3//// 4642/ 50520 60017 43314 15100
10050 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60007 11818 00000
10052 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60003 12412 00000
10051 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 41916 01000
10053 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 30707 00000
99999
USSPS 21305 07163 09742 72004 11616 01205 73006 12511 3/803 68114 35209
57523 69068 43514 57612 74001 42214 01204
USSPS 81202 08020 08622 62119 35610 57517 63070 44013 54608 68004 42714
11302 66003 11017 11304 67006 11911 31305
USSPS 32404 07063 10432 67086 34809 51520 68052 43014 54614 71000 12318
0/102 72002 12811 21302 73001 41715 01204 74000 30210 01202
USSPS 31405 07108 12332 46074 34808 55429 47052 43314 44617 50002 11818
01207 51001 41916 01204 52003 12412 22303 53001 30707 01203
UMAGF 30503 70909 1004/ 08065 1/072 24466 35521
UMAGF 31523 70909 0000/ 08005 1/089 27445 37775
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