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OK0NAG > SOLAR 10.09.17 14:49l 142 Lines 5037 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Sun, 10 Sep 2017 12:30:22 GMT
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2017 Sep 10 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU253
UGEOA 30512 70910 1230/ 9930/
12102 20102 38102
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 10 Sep 2017 until 12 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Catania group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) continued to dominate
solar activity. The largest flare was an M1.1 flare peaking at 13:53UT
September 9.
This region has currently reached the Western limb. Other regions on disk
were stable or in decay while a new region has appeared from over the
Eastern limb.
As long as Catania group 46 has not fully disappeared over the Western
limb, further M flares must be accounted for, with also a chance for an
X
flare remaining.
Associated to the M1.1 flare a CME was seen in coronagraph images. It is
directed Westward and appears to be limited in angular extent and hence
will not be influencing Earth.
The >10MeV proton flux has dropped below 1pfu during the period and is
further approaching background values.
Associated with the activity in Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA region
2673), chances for renewed increases in proton fluxes remain, but are
decreasing.
A positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere is starting
to
transit the central meridian and could influence solar wind conditions
from
September 13 onwards.
Solar wind conditions have been stable with solar wind speed around
550km/s, total magnetic field nominal at 4-5nT and Bz mostly positive.
The slightly elevated solar wind speed is expected to persist over the
next
24 hours and later decline towards nominal values.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes 0-2, NOAA Kp 0-1).
Over the next days, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 047, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70910 1230/ 09///
1//// 21071 3003/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
09 1050 1104 1142 S14W74 M3.7 SF 46/2673 III/2
09 2204 2353 0041 S07W74 M1.1 SF 450 46/2673 II/2III/1
END
UGEOR 30512 70910 1230/ 07/10 10106
10046 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50740 60029 34808 29722
10047 2//// 3//// 4642/ 50520 60017 43314 16200
10052 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60003 12412 00000
10051 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 41916 01000
99999
USSPS 32404 08062 10732 67104 35909 57426 68070 44313 51613 71004 10817
11404 72004 11512 21409 73006 43116 21305
USSPS 21305 08147 08742 72001 10517 0/102 73006 11111 11309 68095 36508
57415 69056 44814 51608 74002 43516 0/103
USSPS 81202 09007 06122 62101 36809 57408 63056 45214 51405 68004 44316
01203 67008 10712 31305
UMAGF 30503 70910 1004/ 09067 1/004 21110 30000
UMAGF 31523 70910 0000/ 09000 1/003 22211 31000
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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