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OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.09.17 15:11l 135 Lines 4700 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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To: solar@eu
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Date: Mon, 11 Sep 2017 13:09:49 GMT
:Issued: 2017 Sep 11 1309 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU254
UGEOA 30512 70911 1309/ 9930/
10112 21112 30112
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 11 Sep 2017 until 13 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Strongest flare reported in the last 24 hours was the X8.2 flare
which peaked at 16:06 UT, on September 10. This long duration flare,
originated from the Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA AR 2673) which was,
at
the moment of eruption, already partially behind the west solar limb. The
flare was associated with the EIT wave, halo CME and the shock wave which
had projected speed of about 2900 km/s.
The steep increase of the proton fluxes, with >10 MeV, > 50 MeV as well
as
>100MeV, associated with the X8.2 flare was observed yesterday. The proton
flux levels are slowly decreasing, but they are presently still above the
event threshold.The recently arrived data indicate that the arrival of
the
CME-driven shock wave, associated with the X-class flare, might be expected
tomorrow morning (probably around 08:00 UT).
The Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA AR 2673), which was the source of the
majority of the flaring activity during last few days, has rotated behind
the west solar limb. Therefore, we expect solar activity to be low, with
at
most C-class flares.
The solar wind speed remains to be rather high, amounting about 600 km/s,
and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT. The fast
solar wind, associated with the low latitude coronal hole in the northern
hemisphere which reached the central meridian in the mid-day yesterday,
is
expecting to arrive at the Earth on September 13.
Geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled. We expect active
conditions within next 24 hours due to arrival of the CME-driven shock
wave.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 033, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70911 1309/ 10///
1//// 21001 3008/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
10 1535 1606 1631 ////// X8.2 1900 46/2673 IV/2III/2II/1
END
UGEOR 30512 70911 1309/ 07/10 11106
10047 2//// 3//// 4642/ 50520 60017 43314 00000
10052 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60003 12412 00000
99999
USSPS 31405 11093 03432 47002 47815 2/902 54001 42717 0/101 55004 16110
2/901
UMAGF 30503 70911 1004/ 10063 1/017 21103 33332
UMAGF 31523 70911 0000/ 10000 1/008 20010 31334
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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