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OK0NAG > SOLAR 15.09.17 14:33l 129 Lines 4457 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Date: Fri, 15 Sep 2017 12:30:18 GMT
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU258
UGEOA 30512 70915 1230/ 9930/
10152 22152 30152
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 15 Sep 2017 until 17 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 032
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 009
COMMENT: The sunspot group Catania number 55 (NOAA AR 2680), is still the
only reported sunspot group on the visible side of the solar disc. Solar
activity was very low, with no even C-class flares reported in the past
24
hours. Isolated C-class flares are possible in the coming hours, but very
improbable.
The particle event, associated with the X8.2 flare has finished, the proton
fluxes with >10 MeV went bellow the event threshold at about 18 UT on
September 14. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the past 24
hours.
The Earth is presently inside the fast solar wind stream with the speed
of
about 660 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 6
nT.
Arrival of the interaction region between the slow and the fast solar wind
from a low-latitude extension of the northern polar coronal hole induced
yesterday afternoon and early this morning moderate geomagnetic storm
conditions: NOAA Kp = 6 (with local K = 5 at Dourbes). The interaction
region was followed by the fast stream, with the solar wind speed reaching
770 km/s. Since the solar wind speed is still rather high, longer intervals
of the negative value of the Bz component of interplanetary magnetic field
might still induce active to minor storm conditions.
Geomagnetic conditions are presently active, and we expect active to
possibly minor storm level (Kp up to 5) conditions in the coming hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 013, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70915 1230/ 14///
10012 20740 3029/ 4//// 80001 90070
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70915 1230/ 14/09 15101
10055 2//// 3//// 472// 50070 60002 12109 01000
99999
USSPS 31405 15085 01232 55010 10909 2/902
USSPS 21305 13146 01542 75011 13209 21305
USSPS 81202 14012 01132 69013 12808 2/801
UMAGF 30503 70915 1004/ 14064 1/046 21245 34453
UMAGF 31523 70915 0000/ 14007 1/029 22213 34655
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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