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OK0NAG > SOLAR 18.09.17 13:43l 136 Lines 4650 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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To: solar@eu
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-clacks-overhead: GNU Terry Pratchett
Date: Mon, 18 Sep 2017 12:41:59 GMT
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
:Issued: 2017 Sep 18 1241 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU261
UGEOA 30512 70918 1241/ 9930/
10182 21182 30182
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 18 Sep 2017 until 20 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours the Earth side solar activity was very
low
and no flaring activity has been recorded. The only region presented on
the
Earth side disk, Catania sunspot group 55 (NOAA region 2680), has declining
and is unlikely to produce any flaring activity above the B-class level.
The solar activity on the back side is more active with several coronal
mass ejections (CME) observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph. More back-side
CMEs can be expected, including halo CME as the very active Catania group
46 (NOAA region 2673) is located close to the center.
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the solar protons remained
at
background level in the past 24 hours.
The Earth remained in the fast solar wind with a speed around 600 and 700
Km/s, associated with a low-latitude extension of the northern polar
coronal hole which reached central meridian on September 09. The
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained between 5 and 6 nT, and
the Bz component fluctuating between -6 and 5 nT being mainly negative.
Disturbed geomagnetic conditions were observed with K-Dourbes up to 4 and
Kp-NOAA up to 5 due to the fast solar wind and the southward Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field over several consecutive intervals.
The geomagnetic conditions are expected to vary between unsettled to active
conditions and even minor storm conditions may be observed in the coming
hours, in particular, if the Bz component stays negative for longer
periods. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions as the high
speed stream will decrease.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70918 1241/ 17///
1//// 20720 3016/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70918 1241/ 15/08 18101
10055 2//// 3//// 472// 50100 60002 10909 00000
99999
USSPS 31405 18085 01332 55014 43009 21303
USSPS 32404 16058 01332 75010 40108 21303
USSPS 21305 16143 01342 75015 40709 2/803
UMAGF 30503 70918 1004/ 17064 1/030 22244 33243
UMAGF 31523 70918 0000/ 17000 1/016 23323 34432
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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