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OK0NAG > SOLAR 21.09.17 14:41l 136 Lines 4607 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2017 12:39:31 GMT
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
To: solar@eu
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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:Issued: 2017 Sep 21 1239 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU264
UGEOA 30512 70921 1239/ 9930/
10212 20212 30212
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 21 Sep 2017 until 23 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 016
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours the solar activity was very low with only
a
few B-class flares recorded. The major flare was a B8.4-class flare at
19:32 UT attributed to the Catania sunspot group 55 (NOAA active region
2680). The returning region has been assigned a new number: Catania sunspot
group 56 (NOAA active region 2681). Both regions show a simple photospheric
magnetic field configuration (alpha) and are unlikely to produce any strong
flaring activity. We expect the solar activity to remain low with some
B-class flares and a slight chance for C-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the solar protons remained
at
background level over the past 24 hours.
The Earth is currently inside a slow solar wind flow that has declined
further from 500 to 400 Km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude
remained below 6 nT and the Bz component fluctuated between -4 and 4 nT
being mainly negative. A relatively small equatorial coronal hole in the
south hemisphere has crossed the central meridian yesterday Sept 20 around
16:30 UT. The associated fast solar wind is expected to arrive at Earth
on
Sept 23 late afternoon.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled with Kp (NOAA) and local
K
(Dourbes) indexes ranging between 1-3 and 0-2 respectively. The geomagnetic
conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled until Sept 23 when
the
fast solar will reach Earth.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 023, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70921 1239/ 20///
10012 20740 3012/ 4//// 80001 90040
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70921 1239/ 21/09 21102
10055 2//// 3//// 472// 50030 60002 47208 01000
10056 2//// 3//// 472// 50040 60001 26813 01000
99999
USSPS 31405 21093 02332 55003 47208 2/902 56004 26813 2/901
USSPS 32404 19064 01132 75004 44308 2/801
USSPS 21305 19142 01132 75006 44808 2/801
USSPS 81202 20014 02332 69006 45308 2/801 71000 42107 0/102
UMAGF 30503 70921 1004/ 20065 1/012 22221 33111
UMAGF 31523 70921 0000/ 20001 1/012 24322 32141
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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