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OK0NAG > SOLAR 23.09.17 14:36l 149 Lines 5095 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
Date: Sat, 23 Sep 2017 12:34:23 GMT
To: solar@eu
:Issued: 2017 Sep 23 1234 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU266
UGEOA 30512 70923 1234/ 9930/
11232 21232 30232
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 23 Sep 2017 until 25 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours the solar activity was very low, only a
small B-class flare was recorded. Catania sunspot groups 56 (NOAA active
regions 2681) remained stable showing no flaring activity. Catania sunspot
group 55 (NOAA active region 2680) is currently turning over the west solar
limb. The top of the loops from the returning region Catania sunspot group
46 (NOAA active region 2673), from which a B3.0-class flare (Sept 23 at
06:03 UT) is attributed, is now visible at the east solar limb. We expect
the solar activity to increase due to this returning region with C-class
flares. As this region was very active with several X-class flares during
the previous solar rotation, we cannot exclude the possibility of M to
X-class flares to occur. Once the foot-points of the loops will be visible,
a better estimation of its magnetic complexity will be made and we will
be
able to better estimate the probability of flaring activity.
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the solar protons remained
at
background level over the past 24 hours.
The Earth remained inside a slow solar wind flow with de speed lower than
400 Km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 6
nT
and the Bz component fluctuated between -4 and 4 nT being mainly negative.
The associated fast solar wind to the small equatorial coronal hole that
has crossed the central meridian on Sept 20 is expected to arrive at Earth
today around midnight UT time.
Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled with Kp (NOAA) and
local K (Dourbes) indexes ranging between 1-2 and 0-3 respectively. While
the solar wind remained in its nominal condition, the local K (Dourbs)
sowed an unexpected short duration maximum (K=4) at 22:00 UT due to the
Bz
components being mostly negative. The geomagnetic conditions are expected
to remain quiet to unsettled until Sept 23 when the fast solar will reach
Earth.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70923 1234/ 22///
10022 20780 3008/ 4//// 80102 90100
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70923 1234/ 22/06 23102
10055 2//// 3//// 472// 50030 60001 48408 00000
10056 2//// 3//// 472// 50070 60001 25513 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 21073 02222 75010 47107 2/801 77010 27014 2/801
USSPS 21305 21141 02232 76007 26513 2/801 75006 47507 2/801
USSPS 81202 22014 02232 69006 47809 2/801 72012 25813 2/801
UMAGF 30503 70923 1004/ 22064 1/012 21111 33311
UMAGF 31523 70923 0000/ 22001 1/008 21111 31134
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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