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CX2SA > SWPC 27.09.17 00:24l 62 Lines 2272 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20946-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 170926/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20946 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20946-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0234Z from Region 2683 (N12E60). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 25/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Sep), active to
major storm levels on day two (28 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (29 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 091
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 091/091/091
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 017/028-024/032-020/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 30/40/30
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 65/80/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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