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OK0NAG > SOLAR 27.09.17 13:57l 132 Lines 4614 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Wed, 27 Sep 2017 12:48:17 GMT
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU270
UGEOA 30512 70927 1248/ 9930/
10272 22272 30272
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 27 Sep 2017 until 29 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 091 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 093 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 091 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant
flares have been recorded. Catania group 57 (NOAA AR region 2683) has been
most active, producing one C1.7 flare peaking at 01:03 UT today. Eruptive
activity observed on the visible side of the solar disk yesterday is not
geoeffective. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been
detected today. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background
levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low
over the next 24 hours with some probability of C-class flares.
The sudden jump of the solar wind speed (up to maximum value of 560 km/s)
and simultaneous increase of the density and interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude (up to 17 nT) observed at around 07 UT on September 27 (today)
indicated arrival of the fast flow associated with the low latitude
extension of the northern polar coronal hole. The longer intervals of the
southward Bz component (up to -17 nT) and fast solar wind induced minor
geomagnetic storm conditions starting at about 06:00 UT on September 27
(local station at Dourbes reported K=4 and NOAA reported Kp=5). We expect
active to minor storm conditions (till Kp=5) within next 24 hours due to
arrival of the fast solar wind. Isolated episodes of Kp=6 are also not
excluded.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 040, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70927 1248/ 26///
10046 20910 3005/ 4//// 80103 90360
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 70927 1248/ 26/07 27103
10055 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50100 60010 20112 01000
10056 2//// 3//// 472// 50130 60003 25410 00000
10057 2//// 3//// 474// 50130 60003 17013 02000
99999
USSPS 32404 25061 02732 77009 21612 21304 78022 26907 21303
USSPS 31405 25088 03942 55010 21412 22306 56011 26810 2/901 57007 18613
4/802
USSPS 21305 25175 03822 76008 20913 31305 77022 26512 3/801 78030 18011
5/802
USSPS 81202 23043 01612 72007 20413 21306
UMAGF 30503 70927 1004/ 26066 1/013 21210 31233
UMAGF 31523 70927 0000/ 26005 1/005 21112 31013
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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