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OK0NAG > SOLAR 28.09.17 16:20l 85 Lines 2450 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
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Subject: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
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Solar activity forecast for the period September 29 - October 5, 2017
Activity level: very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A5.5-B5.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 72-95 f.u.
Events: class C (0-7/period), class M (0-2/period), class X (0/period),
proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 22-90
Martina Exnerova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 28 - October 5,
2017
Quiet: Oct 2 - 4
Unsettled: Oct 1 - 5
Active: Sep 28 - 30, Oct 1
Minor storm: Sep 28
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
Currently (Sep 27 evenings), the active episode is beginning and we expect
its culminating at September 28. The next two days, we expect at most
unsettled conditions with probable active event. Further, since October
1,
we expect quiet to unsettled conditions return. An isolated active episode
is also possible about October 1-2.
Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 29 - October 25,
2017
Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on October 6, 23
mostly quiet on October 5
quiet to unsettled October 3, 10, 16 - 21
quiet to active on September 29 - 30, October 2, 4, 7 - 8, 11, 14 - 15,
22, 24
active to disturbed on October 1, 9, 12 - 13, 25
Amplifications of the solar wind, mostly from coronal holes, are expected
on September 29 (- 30), October (1, 3, 6,) 11 - 16, (17 - 18, 21 - 22,
24,) 25
Remark:
- New activity on the Sun can dramatically change real development. Which
has been happening more often lately.
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement
and/or lower reliability of prediction.
F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
OK1HH compiling weekly forecasts since January 1978
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
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