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CX2SA > SWPC 29.09.17 01:12l 61 Lines 2223 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21134-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<N6RME<CX2SA
Sent: 170928/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21134 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21134-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Sep,
30 Sep, 01 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 752 km/s at 28/0846Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 28/0108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 27/2128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3706 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Sep) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 091
Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 091/091/091
90 Day Mean 28 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 024/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 043/061
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 021/028-014/018-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/50/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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