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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.10.17 12:42l 109 Lines 3952 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly SILSO report: International Sunspot Number and forecasts
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Subject: Monthly SILSO report: International Sunspot Number and forecasts
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#-------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY TABLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL TOTAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# AND 12-MONTH PREDICTIONS from the World Data Center SILSO #
#-------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
September 2017 : 43.6 (forty-three point six)
Maximum : 119 on 5 // Minimum : 11 on 12, 19
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for September 2017 :
1.. 59 6.. 99 11.. 31 16.. 13 21.. 22 26.. 39
2.. 56 7.. 97 12.. 11 17.. 14 22.. 21 27.. 37
3..106 8.. 89 13.. 12 18.. 13 23.. 12 28.. 42
4..113 9.. 64 14.. 12 19.. 11 24.. 23 29.. 43
5..119 10.. 40 15.. 12 20.. 22 25.. 36 30.. 40
78 cooperating stations on October 1, 09 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for March 2017 : 25.8 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2017 Apr 24 22 2017 Oct 22 23 2018 Apr 15 23
May 25 20 Nov 21 23 May 13 22
Jun 26 20 Dec 20 23 Jun 11 21
Jul 25 21 2018 Jan 19 24 Jul 10 20
Aug 24 22 Feb 18 25 Aug 8 19
Sep 23 23 Mar 17 26 Sep 7 18
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
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