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OK0NAG > SOLAR 02.10.17 13:33l 134 Lines 4636 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Mon, 2 Oct 2017 12:30:18 GMT
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2017 Oct 02 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU275
UGEOA 30512 71002 1230/ 9930/
10022 20022 30022
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 02 Oct 2017 until 04 Oct
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 085 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 083 / AP: 005
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. The 3 visible sunspot
groups were quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels. Quiet flaring conditions are expected, with a small chance on a
C-class flare.
Some coronal dimming was observed at S10W50 on 01 October between 14 and
17UT, followed by post-eruption coronal loops over and to the northwest
of
NOAA 2682. The x-ray flux seems to have been mildly enhanced in response
to
this eruptive event. Some coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed by
SOHO/LASCO starting late on 01 October, but they were relatively slow
(CACTus) and directed to the west (no obvious earth-directed component).
Solar wind speed varied between 430 and 500 km/s (DSCOVR), ending the
period near 440 km/s. Bz varied between -5 and +2 nT (DSCOVR). The
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed away from the Sun. A
small negative equatorial coronal hole (CH) started transiting the central
meridian on 01 October.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with Kp featuring
a
single active episode during the 03-06UT interval. Quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions are expected, with an active episode still possible.
The arrival of the particle stream associated with the aforementioned CH
is
expected for 04 or 05 October, with increasing chances on active
geomagnetic conditions.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 034, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71002 1230/ 01///
1//// 20860 3016/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71002 1230/ 29/07 02103
10055 2//// 3//// 472// 50060 60001 33812 00000
10056 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50210 60018 21609 01000
10057 2//// 3//// 474// 50320 60003 12914 01000
99999
USSPS 32404 30095 04032 77005 35514 2/801 78015 20311 21407 79023 11713
5/802
USSPS 21305 30162 04022 78030 11313 5/803 77016 20112 21306 76004 35514
2/801
USSPS 81202 01032 03632 72006 36213 1/801 73007 30811 2/801 01040 11306
4/804
UMAGF 30503 71002 1004/ 01060 1/021 22224 32313
UMAGF 31523 71002 0000/ 01000 1/016 23232 33434
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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