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CX2SA > SWPC 04.10.17 00:25l 61 Lines 2172 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21818-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171003/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21818 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21818-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 03/0231Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 03/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
03/0500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16100 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06
Oct).
III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 086
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 086/086/086
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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