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OK0NAG > SOLAR 04.10.17 14:51l 131 Lines 4392 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Wed, 4 Oct 2017 12:30:16 GMT
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
To: solar@eu
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2017 Oct 04 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU277
UGEOA 30512 71004 1230/ 9930/
10042 20042 30042
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 04 Oct 2017 until 06 Oct
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 085 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 085 / AP: 012
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. NOAA 2683 (Catania 57)
gained some small opposite polarity sunspots south of the main spot, and
was the source of 3 low-level B-class flares. NOAA 2682 (Catania 56) was
quiet, showing a long filament to the east and north of the main spot.
No
earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.
Quiet flaring conditions are expected, with a small chance on a C-class
flare.
A sector boundary crossing (SBC) was observed in the solar wind during
the
first half of 03 October, during which the interplanetary magnetic field
changed its direction from "away" to "towards" the Sun. During the last
24
hours, solar wind speed declined gradually from 410 to 370 km/s (DSCOVR).
Bz fluctuated between -2 and +4 nT.
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with Kp at unsettled levels during
the 03-06UT interval. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are
expected to continue. The arrival of the particle stream associated with
a
small negative equatorial coronal hole is expected late on 04 or on 05
October, and may increase the likelihood on an active geomagnetic episode.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 027, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71004 1230/ 03///
1//// 20860 3007/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71004 1230/ 29/07 04103
10056 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50210 60018 21609 01000
10057 2//// 3//// 474// 50320 60003 12914 02000
99999
USSPS 32404 03059 02932 78012 33710 3/802 79033 32213 5/807
USSPS 21305 02153 02642 77010 33010 3/801 78030 41515 51305
USSPS 81202 03008 02432 73012 33509 5/801 74040 41813 51803
UMAGF 30503 71004 1004/ 03069 1/009 22100 31222
UMAGF 31523 71004 0000/ 03000 1/007 23321 30112
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