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OK0NAG > SOLAR 06.10.17 14:52l 129 Lines 4443 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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To: solar@eu
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2017 12:30:18 GMT
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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:Issued: 2017 Oct 06 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU279
UGEOA 30512 71006 1230/ 9930/
10062 20062 30062
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 06 Oct 2017 until 08 Oct
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 083 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 006
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels. NOAA 2683 (Catania 57) produced
several low-level B-class flares and an isolated C1 flare peaking on 05
October at 13:41UT. The region has lost most of its opposite polarity spots
south of the main spot. NOAA 2682 (Catania 56) showed some activity north
of its main spot from 08UT onwards (x-ray flux enhancement, no flare).
No
earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.
Quiet flaring conditions are expected, with a small chance on another
isolated C-class flare.
Solar wind speed continued its gradual increase from its initial 370 km/s
to current values around 450 km/s (DSCOVR). Bz oscillated between -8 and
+7
nT, being predominantly negative during the 19UT-03UT interval. The
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed towards the Sun.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, and is expected
to
remain so. The particle stream associated with a small negative equatorial
coronal hole is still expected to arrive at Earth, either later today or
tomorrow 07 October. This may increase the likelihood on an active
geomagnetic episode.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 025, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71006 1230/ 05///
1//// 20850 3008/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71006 1230/ 06/08 06102
10056 2//// 3//// 472// 50030 60001 38212 01000
10057 2//// 3//// 473// 50150 60005 46213 02000
99999
USSPS 31405 06081 02632 56003 38212 2/901 57015 46213 3/905
USSPS 32404 04065 02732 78010 35211 2/801 79028 43513 51306
USSPS 21305 04173 03632 77013 35712 2/801 78033 44013 51315
USSPS 81202 05017 02632 73012 36010 2/801 74035 44414 31305
UMAGF 30503 71006 1004/ 05066 1/013 21111 31332
UMAGF 31523 71006 0000/ 05001 1/008 23111 31114
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