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CX2SA > SWPC 11.10.17 00:19l 60 Lines 2174 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22621-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171010/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22621 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22621-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 355 km/s at 10/2016Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 534 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on days one and three (11 Oct, 13
Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 071
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 020/030-023/030-024/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 70/70/70
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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