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OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.10.17 14:53l 118 Lines 4170 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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To: solar@eu
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
Date: Wed, 11 Oct 2017 12:51:59 GMT
:Issued: 2017 Oct 11 1251 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU284
UGEOA 30512 71011 1251/ 9930/
10112 22112 30112
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 11 Oct 2017 until 13 Oct
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 032
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 065 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. There is no sunspots on
the
visible side of solar disk. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. Integral proton flux
for
protons with energies above 10 MeV remained at background level. Quiet
flaring conditions are expected.
The earth environment is currently under the influence of an extension
of a
positive polar coronal hole. Solar wind speed gradually increased from
310
to 410 km/s (DSCOVR). Total interplanetary magnetic filed (IMF) increased
from 2 to 12.5 nT during the past 24 hours. Kp NOAA has reached minor storm
levels now, while locally at Dourbes K reached only active levels
(06-09UT). During the next time slot at 09-12UT planetary geomagnetic
conditions decreased till active levels again. The solar wind speed growth
seems to be stabilized now around 420 km/s. WSA-ENLIL model predicts
further solar wind speed growth till 500 km/s later today. Growing
variations of IMF Bz component observed by DSCOVR, including long intervals
of negative values (down to -10 nT) stipulate disturbed geomagnetic
conditions to be observed further, most likely till minor storm levels.
Isolated episode of moderate geomagnetic storm is also possible.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71011 1251/ 10///
10000 20710 3003/ 4//// 80000 90000
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71011 1251/ ///// /////
99999
USSPS 31405 11070 00032
UMAGF 30503 71011 1004/ 10069 1/016 21100 31343
UMAGF 31523 71011 0000/ 10008 1/003 20000 30113
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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