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CX2SA > SWPC 14.10.17 00:19l 61 Lines 2215 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22929-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171013/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22929 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22929-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 691 km/s at 13/1759Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 13/1543Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 13/1514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4986 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (14 Oct), unsettled to
active levels on day two (15 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 070
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 020/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 028/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 022/035-015/020-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/25
Minor Storm 40/15/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 75/45/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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