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CX2SA > SWPC 17.10.17 00:20l 60 Lines 2178 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23259-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171016/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23259 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23259-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 15/2354Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 16/0318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/0316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 36944 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 Oct, 19
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (18 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 071
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 070/070/072
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 021/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 008/010-011/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/45/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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