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OK0NAG > SOLAR 18.10.17 13:32l 120 Lines 4120 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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To: solar@eu
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2017 12:30:34 GMT
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
:Issued: 2017 Oct 18 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU291
UGEOA 30512 71018 1230/ 9930/
10182 20182 30182
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 18 Oct 2017 until 20 Oct
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Returning NOAA region 2682 (behind the East limb) produced a long
duration B2.3 flare peaking around 10:30 UT on October 18. The chance for
a
C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 35%. NOAA 2682 erupted several
times over the past 24 hours. Though data gaps in STEREO A imagery
prevented to see the exact onset of some eruptions on the backside of the
Sun, the events caused CMEs which were observed by LASCO C2 and C3. The
two
most significant CMEs (first seen in LASCO C2 images at 5:48 and 6:36 UT,
respectively) were both bright and fast and extended from the northeast
to
the southeast, with a core towards the northeast. Since these are backside
events, these CMEs will not be geoeffective. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at nominal levels.
Solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR decreased from about 475 to about 390
km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was
predominantlty directed away from the Sun and its magnitude ranged between
about 0 and 4 nT. Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and
2;
NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to
unsettled geomagnetic levels are expected on October 18, 19 and 20.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71018 1230/ 17///
10000 20700 3005/ 4//// 80000 90000
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71018 1230/ ///// /////
99999
USSPS 31405 18070 00032
UMAGF 30503 71018 1004/ 17068 1/008 21211 32111
UMAGF 31523 71018 0000/ 17007 1/005 21111 32222
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