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OK0NAG > SOLAR 21.10.17 14:38l 129 Lines 4583 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2017 12:36:48 GMT
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2017 Oct 21 1236 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU294
UGEOA 30512 71021 1236/ 9930/
11212 21212 30212
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 21 Oct 2017 until 23 Oct
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 007
COMMENT: From the East limb, returning NOAA region 2682 produced a long
duration M1.1 flare peaking at 23:28 UT on October 20. An associated
dimming was detected by Solar Demon, and an associated Type II radio burst
was observed by Palehua at 23:35 UT with a corresponding speed of 344 km/s.
SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 and STEREO COR2 A have observed an associated bright
CME, first seen in LASCO C2 at 00:00 UT on October 21, from the northeast
to the southeast. Analysis of COR2 A jplots revealed a plane of sky speed
of about 385 km/s, yielding a full speed of 770 km/s. Due to the position
of the source, this CME will not be geoeffective. C flares are likely in
the next 24 hours (70% probability), with a chance for an M flare (30%
probability). No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed
in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was
at nominal levels.
A small, fast forward shock in the solar wind occurred at 5:16 UT on
October 21. Solar wind speed registered by DSCOVR jumped from about 340
to
365 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
jumped from about 4 to 6 nT. Current solar wind speed is about 360 km/s
and
current IMF magnitude is about 8.5 nT. The IMF was directed away from the
Sun until it started pointing towards the Sun around 7:40 UT on October
21.
Quiet to unsettled conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between
1
and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. There is a chance for active
geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) on October 21. Quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 22 and 23.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71021 1236/ 20///
10000 20760 3010/ 4//// 80000 90000
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
20 2310 2328 2337 ////// M1.1 /////// II/1
END
UGEOR 30512 71021 1236/ ///// /////
99999
UMAGF 30503 71021 1004/ 20065 1/012 21121 32321
UMAGF 31523 71021 0000/ 20007 1/010 24221 32123
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