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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.11.17 14:24l 111 Lines 3991 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly SILSO report: International Sunspot Number and forecasts
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Date: Wed, 1 Nov 2017 11:14:18 GMT
Subject: Monthly SILSO report: International Sunspot Number and forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Nov 01 09:48 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/ri
#-------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY TABLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL TOTAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# AND 12-MONTH PREDICTIONS from the World Data Center SILSO #
#-------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
October 2017 : 13.2 (thirteen point two)
Maximum : 36 on 1 // Minimum : 0 on 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18,
19, 20
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for October 2017 :
1.. 36 6.. 23 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 11 26.. 23 31.. 11
2.. 24 7.. 11 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 11 27.. 23
3.. 25 8.. 11 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 23 28.. 24
4.. 27 9.. 0 14.. 11 19.. 0 24.. 23 29.. 23
5.. 26 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 23 30.. 21
81 cooperating stations on November 1, 10 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for April 2017 : 24.9 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2017 May 25 23 2017 Nov 22 24 2018 May 15 22
Jun 25 23 Dec 21 24 Jun 13 21
Jul 26 24 2018 Jan 20 24 Jul 11 20
Aug 25 24 Feb 19 25 Aug 9 19
Sep 24 24 Mar 18 25 Sep 8 18
Oct 23 24 Apr 16 22 Oct 7 17
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
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