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CX2SA > SWPC 10.11.17 00:23l 60 Lines 2189 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26079-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171109/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:26079 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:26079-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 09/0016Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 08/2208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 09/0550Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 20291 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (10 Nov, 11
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 066
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 066/066/068
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 039/047
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 023/028-017/024-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/45/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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