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CX2SA > SWPC 16.03.15 15:27l 62 Lines 2241 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15837_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<I3LUG<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<
CX2SA
Sent: 150217/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:15837 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:15837_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Feb,
19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 458 km/s at 17/1847Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 17/0142Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 17/0440Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet levels on
days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 119
Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 17 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/05/05
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 40/05/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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