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CX2SA > SWPC 14.11.17 00:23l 59 Lines 2105 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26517-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA
Sent: 171113/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:26517 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:26517-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 436 km/s at 12/2307Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20582 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (14 Nov, 16 Nov)
and unsettled to active levels on day two (15 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 072
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 013/016-015/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/30
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/35/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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