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OK0NAG > SOLAR 14.11.17 14:31l 123 Lines 4226 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
To: solar@eu
Date: Tue, 14 Nov 2017 12:30:13 GMT
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU318
UGEOA 30512 71114 1230/ 9930/
10142 21142 30142
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 14 Nov 2017 until 16 Nov
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2017 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Nov 2017 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Nov 2017 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 006
COMMENT: Solar activity remains to be low. The background X-ray flux has
increased to a low B-level, due to appearance of the active region which
rotated from the behind of the East solar limb. This, still not numbered
active region, might be the source of B-class and possibly, but not very
probably, also low C-class flares in the coming hours.
During last 24 hours no Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the
solar protons remained at background level.
The solar wind speed is presently 380 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic
field magnitude is about 9 nT.
The in situ observations (from DSCOVR satellite), showed sudden increase
of
the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude, density, temperature and the
solar wind speed at about 00:48 UT this morning, indicating arrival of
a
shock wave. The shock is probably associated with the large filament
eruption from the north-east quadrant of the Sun, which took place in the
morning of November 10.
The geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled and we expect them to
stay so in the coming hours with the possibility of the active geomagnetic
conditions starting from this evening, due to expected arrival of the fast
solar wind associated with with the low latitude extend of the northern
polar coronal hole (reached central meridian in the early morning of
November 11).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71114 1230/ 13///
10000 20720 3006/ 4//// 80000 90000
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71114 1230/ ///// /////
99999
UMAGF 30503 71114 1004/ 13068 1/014 21212 31133
UMAGF 31523 71114 0000/ 13000 1/006 22212 32311
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