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OK0NAG > SOLAR 15.11.17 13:33l 122 Lines 4319 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
To: solar@eu
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2017 12:30:21 GMT
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:Issued: 2017 Nov 15 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU319
UGEOA 30512 71115 1230/ 9930/
10152 21152 30152
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 15 Nov 2017 until 17 Nov
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Nov 2017 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Nov 2017 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Nov 2017 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 006
COMMENT: There were no C-class and even no B-class flares reported during
last 24 hours. The only active region presently observed on the visible
side of the solar disc is Catania sunspot group 63 (NOAA AR 2687) which
has
beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field and might be source
of the B-class and isolated C-class flares (probability of only about 7%)
in the coming hours. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24
hours, and the solar protons remained at background level.
The solar wind speed is presently about 400 km/s and the interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude is about 8 nT.
Due to longer intervals of the negative value of the Bz component,
unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions were reported in the late
evening of November 14 (local station at Dourbes reported interval with
Kand NOAA reported interval of Kp=3).
The fast flow associated with the low latitude extension of the northern
polar coronal hole (reached central meridian in the early morning of
November 11) is expected to arrive at the Earth today. The arrival of the
fast solar wind migh induce disturbed geomagnetic conditions (up to Kp=4).
The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled, and we expect
unsettled to active conditions later today or early morning tomorrow.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71115 1230/ 14///
1//// 20740 3012/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71115 1230/ 15/07 15101
10063 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50040 60005 26206 01000
99999
USSPS 31405 15070 01532 63004 26206 25405
USSPS 81202 14014 01332 80005 27808 11303
UMAGF 30503 71115 1004/ 14063 1/016 22123 32322
UMAGF 31523 71115 0000/ 14002 1/012 23321 32333
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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