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OK0NAG > SOLAR 16.11.17 15:57l 139 Lines 4825 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2017 13:51:24 GMT
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
To: solar@eu
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
:Issued: 2017 Nov 16 1351 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU320
UGEOA 30512 71116 1351/ 9930/
10162 21162 30162
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 16 Nov 2017 until 18 Nov
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Nov 2017 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Nov 2017 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Nov 2017 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 010
COMMENT: The only active region observed on the visible side of the solar
disc, Catania sunspot group 63 (NOAA AR 2687), maintains beta configuration
of its photospheric magnetic field. However, Catania sunspot group 63 was
source of only one low B-class flare and no C-class flares during last
24
hours. We expect such a low solar activity to persist in the coming hours.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours, and the solar
protons remained at background level.
The solar wind speed was showing slow but constant increase since mid-day
of November 15 (simultaneously with temperature increase and density
decrease), and it now amounts about 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic
field magnitude is presently about 5 nT, however longer intervals of its
elevated value (up to 15 nT) were reported in the afternoon of November
15.
All this indicates arrival of the fast solar wind associated with the low
latitude extend of the northern polar corona hole (reached central meridian
on November 11). The arrival of this fast flow induced disturbed
geomagnetic conditions (local station at Dourbes reported intervals of
Kyesterday evening and NOAA reported intervals of Kp=4 around midnight
yesterday and early morning today).
The fast flow associated with the low latitude extension of the southern
polar coronal hole (reached central meridian in the late evening of
November 13) is expected to arrive at the Earth tomorrow.
The geomagnetic conditions are presently unsettled to active due to the
influence of the fast solar wind. We expect unsettled to active conditions
in the coming hours and also tomorrow evening (due to arrival of the fast
solar wind associated with the low latitude extent of the southern polar
coronal hole).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 017, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71116 1351/ 15///
10015 20740 3013/ 4//// 80101 90040
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71116 1351/ 16/08 16101
10063 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50070 60009 24806 00000
99999
USSPS 31405 16081 01932 63007 24806 22309
USSPS 21305 14150 01432 84005 27008 31304
USSPS 81202 15033 01222 80007 26809 11302
UMAGF 30503 71116 1004/ 15068 1/026 22323 32244
UMAGF 31523 71116 0000/ 15005 1/013 23223 33333
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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