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CX2SA > SWPC 17.11.17 00:24l 61 Lines 2214 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26761-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171116/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:26761 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:26761-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 16/1440Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 15/2343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
16/0100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 886 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 Nov, 19 Nov)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 073
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 013/014-007/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/25
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/15/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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