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CX2SA > SWPC 16.03.15 14:31l 63 Lines 2380 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16821_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<I3LUG<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<VK2DOT<CX2SA
Sent: 150309/1119Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:16821 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:16821_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Mar 07 2240 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
06/2111Z from Region 2297 (S17E81). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
585 km/s at 07/1034Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/2237Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/2321Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (08 Mar, 10 Mar)
and unsettled to active levels on day two (09 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 138
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 009/012-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/45/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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