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CX2SA > SWPC 16.03.15 23:23l 66 Lines 2497 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17202_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150316/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17202 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17202_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1058Z from Region 2297 (S17W52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 16/1957Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1615Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0522Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at
16/0755Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Mar), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (18 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (19 Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on days one, two,
and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 60/60/60
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 117
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 012/015-014/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 15/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/60/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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