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CX2SA > SWPC 29.11.17 00:23l 62 Lines 2246 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27979-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171128/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27979 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27979-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 28/0117Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 28/0057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
28/0031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 212 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (01 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 072
Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 072/071/070
90 Day Mean 28 Nov 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 018/024-014/016-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor Storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/45/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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