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CX2SA > SWPC 04.12.17 00:24l 61 Lines 2206 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28605-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171203/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:28605 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:28605-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 517 km/s at 03/1107Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/1724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/1922Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Dec), active to
major storm levels on day two (05 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (06 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 070
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 032/048/018
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 022/032-029/048-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor Storm 35/40/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 75/79/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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