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OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.12.17 14:15l 120 Lines 4066 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Mon, 11 Dec 2017 12:58:15 GMT
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To: solar@eu
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2017 Dec 11 1258 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU345
UGEOA 30512 71211 1258/ 9930/
10112 22112 30112
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 11 Dec 2017 until 13 Dec
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 012
COMMENT: The Sun did not produce any C flares in the past 24 hours. The
chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 15%. No Earth-
directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.
Solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR jumped from 337 to 352 km/s at 2:45
UT
on December 11, coinciding with a jump of the magnitude of the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) and the solar wind density. Solar wind
speed has further increased to current values around 420 km/s. The IMF
had
a maximum around 12 nT at 7:26 UT, with current values around 8 nT. This
enhanced solar wind is associated with the arrival of a high speed stream
from a positive coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on December
8. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3;
NOAA Kp between 0 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to
minor storm levels (K Dourbes < 6) are possible on December 11, 12 and
13
due to the influence of the high speed stream associated with a positive
coronal hole, with a slight chance for moderate storm conditions (K Dourbes
= 6).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 03 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71211 1258/ 10///
1//// 20720 3003/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71211 1258/ ///// /////
99999
UMAGF 30503 71211 1004/ 10060 1/010 21102 30213
UMAGF 31523 71211 0000/ 10001 1/003 20011 31212
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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