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CX2SA > SWPC 19.03.15 07:42l 67 Lines 2587 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17251_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<N6RME<CX2SA
Sent: 150317/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17251 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17251_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/0152Z from Region 2297 (S16W64). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 673 km/s at 17/1045Z. Total IMF reached 35 nT at 17/1336Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -28 nT at 17/1324Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2
pfu at 17/0045Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (18 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (19 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (20
Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev are likely to cross threshold on days
one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 40/40/20
Class X 10/10/01
Proton 60/60/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 114
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 071/119
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 021/035-015/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/15
Minor Storm 35/15/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 70/45/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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