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OK0NAG > SOLAR 13.12.17 14:32l 128 Lines 4438 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2017 12:30:18 GMT
To: solar@eu
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Reply-to: no-reply-sidc@oma.be
X-clacks-overhead: GNU Terry Pratchett
:Issued: 2017 Dec 13 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU347
UGEOA 30512 71213 1230/ 9930/
10132 21132 30132
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 13 Dec 2017 until 15 Dec
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 014
COMMENT: The Sun did not produce any flares in the past 24 hours. The
chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth-
directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.
In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR varied between
about 440 and 540 km/s, with current values around 475 km/s. The magnitude
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 1 and 9 nT. Bz
was around -5 nT between 15:45 and 17:15 UT on December 12. A high speed
stream from a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole is expected to
arrive in the second half of December 15 or early on December 16. Quiet
to
active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between
1
and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. The active interval (K Dourbes
= 4) between 18h and 21h UT on December 12 was related to Bz values around
-5 nT. Quiet to active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are possible
on
December 13 and 14 and the first half of December 15, with a chance for
minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to minor storm conditions
(K
Dourbes < 6) are expected in the second half of December 15, with a chance
for moderate geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6), due to the
expected arrival of a high speed stream from a recurrent positive
equatorial coronal hole.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71213 1230/ 12///
10014 20710 3017/ 4//// 80101 90010
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71213 1230/ 12/07 13101
10066 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 22402 00000
99999
USSPS 21305 10159 01232 88001 24703 01202
USSPS 81202 12018 01422 83004 22900 01204
UMAGF 30503 71213 1004/ 12063 1/018 22213 34300
UMAGF 31523 71213 0000/ 12000 1/017 23322 31354
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