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OK0NAG > SOLAR 14.12.17 19:50l 87 Lines 2628 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
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Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2017 19:43:17 +0100
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Subject: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
Solar activity forecast for the period December 15 - December 21, 2017
Activity level: mostly very low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A3.0-A7.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 66-75 f.u.
Events: class C (0/period), class M (0/period), class X (0/period), proton
(0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-35
Martina Exnerova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 15 - December 21,
2017
Quiet: Dec 15 - 16, 21
Unsettled: Dec 16, 19 - 21
Active: Dec 17 - 19
Minor storm: possible Dec 17 - 18
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
The solar wind velocity has decreased, we expect quiet to unsettled
conditions during the coming weekend (December 16 - 17). Sunday evenings,
because of near-equatorial coronal hole (+49/4) the active episode arrival
is possible this time interval, and, the next day (December 18),we expect
the geomagnetic activity maximum. We expect active conditons (local
K-index at the value 4) with possible minor storming event (local K-index
at 5).
After this expected active event, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease
to unsettled (December 19 - 20) and quiet to unsettled level (December
20
- 21).
Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 15 - January 10,
2017
Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on December 23 - 24, 26, January 5 - 6,
mostly quiet on December 16, 25, January 4,
quiet to unsettled on December 15, 17, 30, January 7 - 8
quiet to active on December 20 - 22, 27 - 29, 31, January 3, 9
active to disturbed on December 18 - 19, January 1 - 2, 10
Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on December (17,) 18 - 22, (24 - 25, 30 - 31,) January 1 - 3, (4,)
5 - 7, (8)
Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
F. K. Janda, OK1HH
(from Czech Propagation Interested Group
compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since 1978).
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
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