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OK0NAG > SOLAR 16.12.17 14:51l 124 Lines 4248 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2017 12:30:18 GMT
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2017 Dec 16 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU350
UGEOA 30512 71216 1230/ 9930/
10162 21162 30162
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 16 Dec 2017 until 18 Dec
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance
for
a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. A filament eruption
near
25S 40E was observed in GONG H-alpha and SDO/AIA 304 A images around 12h
UT
on December 15. An associated CME was detected by CACTUS in LASCO C2 images
at 12:12 UT, with an estimated low speed of 284 km/s using COR2 A J-maps.
This CME may arrive at Earth (probability: 20%), in which case it should
arrive early on December 20 according to the drag based model. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.
Solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR suddenly increased from about 345 to
370 km/s around 21:30 UT on December 15. Afterwards, it gradually decreased
to current values around 340 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
was mainly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude ranged between
about 0.5 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Quiet geomagnetic conditions
(K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in
the
past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on December
16 and 17, with a slight chance for minor geomagnetic storm intervals (K
Dourbes = 5), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a
recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions
(K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 18.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71216 1230/ 15///
10000 20720 3003/ 4//// 80000 90000
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71216 1230/ ///// /////
99999
UMAGF 30503 71216 1004/ 15062 1/006 20121 31100
UMAGF 31523 71216 0000/ 15001 1/003 20001 32212
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