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OK0NAG > SOLAR 17.12.17 14:33l 118 Lines 4129 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Sun, 17 Dec 2017 12:30:09 GMT
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From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU351
UGEOA 30512 71217 1230/ 9930/
10172 23172 30172
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 17 Dec 2017 until 19 Dec
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 036
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 015
COMMENT: The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance
for
a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth-directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic
imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.
DSCOVR observed a disturbance in the solar wind around 21h UT on December
16. Since then, solar wind speed has increased to current values around
600
km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was mainly directed away
from
the Sun and its magnitude has increased from about 4 nT before 21h UT to
values up to about 16 nT. Bz was variable and was consistently below -5
nT
from about 3:30 until 6:00 UT. The observed enhancement in solar wind
conditions is probably due to the arrival of an expected high speed stream
of a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole. Quiet to active
geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and
5)
were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to moderate storm conditions
(K Dourbes = 4 to 6) are possible on December 17 and 18. Active geomagnetic
conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on December 19, with a chance for
minor geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71217 1230/ 16///
1//// 20710 3003/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71217 1230/ ///// /////
99999
USSPS 31405 15080 00042
UMAGF 30503 71217 1004/ 16064 1/012 20111 31332
UMAGF 31523 71217 0000/ 16000 1/003 20001 31113
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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