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OK0NAG > SOLAR 18.12.17 14:51l 134 Lines 4607 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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To: solar@eu
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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Date: Mon, 18 Dec 2017 12:30:22 GMT
:Issued: 2017 Dec 18 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU352
UGEOA 30512 71218 1230/ 9930/
10182 21182 30182
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 18 Dec 2017 until 20 Dec
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 019
COMMENT: The Sun is spotless and no significant flaring activity was
recorded. No flaring activity is expected over the next 24 hours.
There were no CMEs observed in coronagraph data.
The proton flux values are at background levels and are expected to remain
so.
An elongated negative polarity equatorial coronal hole started transiting
the central meridian. It may influence solar wind from November 20 onwards.
Solar wind is under the expected influence of a positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream. Since just after the start of the reporting period
solar wind speed has been between 575 and 650 km/s. Total magnetic field
was between 5-10nT with negative peaks of Bz down to -7nT.
Based on Stereo A Solar wind measurements, the influence of the high speed
stream is expected to decay over the next 24 hours.
On December 20 we may see some minor influence of the December 15 CME and
later on a renewed increase in Solar wind conditions due to the negative
polarity equatorial coronal hole currently transiting the central meridian.
Geomagnetic conditions have seen a minor storm period in the afternoon
of
December 17 with both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes reaching K=5. Afterwards,
quiet to active conditions were reported (NOAA Kp 3-4 and local K Dourbes
2-4).
With Solar wind speed still high, periods of active geomagnetic conditions
should be anticipated but should become less likely over the next 24-48
hours. Renewed increases of geomagnetic activity may follow starting
December 20 caused by the possible December 15 CME influence and later
increased Solar wind conditions due to the negative polarity equatorial
coronal hole currently transiting the central meridian.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71218 1230/ 17///
1//// 20710 3026/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71218 1230/ ///// /////
99999
USSPS 31405 18090 00032
UMAGF 30503 71218 1004/ 17063 1/044 24234 35443
UMAGF 31523 71218 0000/ 17006 1/026 23353 33454
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