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OK0NAG > SOLAR 20.12.17 14:34l 129 Lines 4432 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Wed, 20 Dec 2017 12:30:18 GMT
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU354
UGEOA 30512 71220 1230/ 9930/
10202 20202 30202
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 20 Dec 2017 until 22 Dec
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Dec 2017 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with only a couple of low level B
class flares from the only region on disk Catania sunspotgroup 67.
The region is still fairly simple but has shown quite some growth this
morning.
Flaring is expected to remain below C level.
A filament eruption is seen off the North Eastern hemisphere around 3:00UT.
Coronagraph data are not yet available to assess the extent of the likely
associated CME.
Proton flux values are at background levels and expected to remain so.
Solar wind has recovered to background conditions with Solar wind speed
dropping to 450 km/s by around 2:00 UT this morning and remained stable
since. Total magnetic field has been fluctuating around 3-4nT with a
variable Bz.
A possible arrival of the December 15 CME is no longer expected. A
transition into a negative sector is expected within the next 24 hours
with
then also the influence of the negative polarity equatorial coronal hole
possibly setting in. However, the leading part of the coronal hole which
passed the central meridian on December 18 is not likely to bring any
strong effects. A more significant high speed stream influence is only
expected 3-4 days from now from the trailing part of the coronal hole which
only now starts passing the central meridian.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both local K Dourbes and
NOAA Kp 1-3).
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next days.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71220 1230/ 19///
10011 20690 3006/ 4//// 80101 90010
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71220 1230/ 19/07 20101
10067 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 16419 01000
99999
USSPS 31405 18090 00032
USSPS 81202 19018 01112 84003 17519 0/101
UMAGF 30503 71220 1004/ 19064 1/012 20012 33321
UMAGF 31523 71220 0000/ 19009 1/006 21111 31233
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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