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CX2SA > SWPC 21.03.15 00:22l 64 Lines 2379 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17391_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150320/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:17391 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:17391_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
20/0133Z from Region 2297 (Now beyond the West limb). There are
currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar,
22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 676 km/s at 19/2224Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1737Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2347Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22318
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 113
Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 20 Mar 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 019/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 012/012-017/020-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/40
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/55/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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